Thursday, November 13, 2008

Peter Schiff: Will China Print or Sell?

Make or break. Will Peter Schiff be right?

Will China sell US Treasuries to fund its stimulus package or will it print / borrow?


China's Stimulus Spells Trouble for U.S.

This week, Asian markets were initially energized by China's announcement of a near $600 billion economic stimulus package for its own economy. Although I have never been a fan of government-fueled stimuli, the relative wisdom of the plan hinges on the source of funds the Chinese government decides to utilize. Their best choice would be the country's nearly $2 trillion in foreign reserves, the largest portion of which is held in U.S. Treasury and agency debt. This pile of dollars, which really amounts to no more than a subsidy for U.S. consumers, does nothing to benefit Chinese citizens.

If it does decide to employ this ocean of cash, China will become a net seller of U.S Treasuries just as the U.S. Government itself will be pushing up its issuance of new Treasury bonds into record territory. With two huge sellers and few major buyers (just about every major creditor nation having problems of their own), the Federal Reserve will become the only reliable customer. As a result, not only will the Fed monetize our own economic stimulus packages, but will be forced to provide the same service to the Chinese.

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